Michael Pachter is the analyst every gaming site listens to, but really…how often is he actually right?
Michael Pachter made waves again this week as he said that Sony’s cloud gaming service, PlayStation Now, “Is a joke” and “This has no prayer of working.” Harsh. Not only will it not work, but the idea of playing classic PlayStation games is a joke. Okay then. First up, I don’t mind what he says. That’s his opinion and if he feels that way, fair enough. Personally, I don’t agree with that statement. In fact, you can read my thoughts on PlayStation Now here.
What I want to talk about is, why is Michael Pachter so often quoted in the gaming industry? Why does his opinion matter so much? And just how often is he actually right? I mean, surely his opinion carries a lot of weight. Every time Pachter has an opinion on something related to the gaming industry, every gaming site slaps the quote on their site and make it front page news. So, let’s dive into a little bit about Michael Pachter.
What does Michael Pachter actually do? Well, according to Wikipedia, he is a “video game, social media, digital media, and electronics analyst with Wedbush Securities. He is also the Head of Research for the Private Shares Group, a Wedbush division…” yada, yada, yada. Basically, he’s an analyst, but as we all know Wikipedia isn’t the best site to cite sources.
So, after doing some hard hitting research (IE: Scrolling down to the next link) we come across his Twitter page. According to his own twitter (which is verified) he is a “Research Analyst, Wedbush Securities, host of Pach Attack, occasionally right; I don’t spam my followers”
Wikipedia checked out, but his twitter gives us a little more information. He doesn’t spam his followers, that’s good. If you follow Pachter he won’t go crazy on his twitter feed updating nonsense every 5 minutes. But, what I want focus on is the “occasionally right” part.
Now, is Michael Pachter “occasionally right?” I don’t know, we’ll see. We’ll go over some of his predictions in the video game world later, but on face value I would love to have a job in which I get paid to be “occasionally right.” Not many people have jobs that gives them that much leeway.
It’s time for some predictions. Now, I say this (type this) with a bit of disappointment. I was ready to put in time and effort going back years and years to see some of Pachter’s predictions. Unfortunately, someone (someones) already has a nice list of Michael Pachter predictions. That’s usually the case on the internet. If you have an idea, a quote, a whatever the case maybe, I’m sure someone has already come up with it.
Like for example, after playing Resident Evil 5 there’s a part – by the way, spoilers on a mediocre five year old game – there’s this part at the end where the protagonist, Chris Redfield, starts punching this boulder and I thought to myself, “Wow, Resident Evil has officially jumped the shark…or what a minute…Resident has now….punched the boulder!” Because as you know when something jumps the shark it’s all downhill from there, basically. In the film world, “nuking the fridge” is basically jumping the shark, so in mind, I came up with this fantastic idea of “punching the boulder” in the video game world. A quick Google search and much to my dismay someone had created a thread and had the same thought as well. It really hasn’t caught on though. Nobody says “Boy, *Insert video game franchise* has really punched the boulder now.”
Anyway, from that point when I have an idea about something, anything, it doesn’t surprise me that someone on the internet has caught on as well. Enough about that, though, I digress. I’m not exactly sure how I started rambling about that, but, back to Michael Pachter and his predictions. I didn’t have to do any hard hitting research. It was all done, and I’ll just use this site as a reference. So, here are some of Michael Pachter’s notable predictions:
Feb 2010: “Project Natal” (Kinect) will cost $50. “Very surprised if it’s more than $79,” “hard to envision” at $150.
Wrong: it was $150.
Oct. 2008: Pachter rates EA a “strong buy,” but does say management is doing a poor job.
Wrong: In December of 2008 EA Stock dropped 25% in two days.
November 2008: Assassin’s Creed 2 will be set in the 17th Century.
Wrong by 200 years; it was in the 15 Century
March 2009: This is the “last generation of consoles.” There will be no new consoles ever (or at least for a very long time) from Microsoft and Sony, though Nintendo may put out a Wii HD with more storage.
Completely Wrong: Nintendo did not put out a Wii HD. Nintendo put out a new console with the Wii U, and even though Pachter denies it’s a next-gen console, it’s certainly not just a Wii HD. It was March 2009 when he made this quote, well, Sony and Microsoft released next gen consoles in November 2013 (other countries in early 2014 as well.). That’s “not a very long time.”
One final prediction(s):
March 2009: Next Grand Theft Auto game will come out in 2010, outsell GTA:IV.
Jul 2009: Next GTA game to come out by 2011.
Dec 2010: Next GTA game to come out by 2012.
Wrong: In late November, 2011 Rockstar announced GTA:V was in “full development,” but as of the fall of 2012 they still haven’t announced a release date.
Obviously, the information is a little bit dated as Grand Theft Auto V is already out now, but I gotta tell you, reading this one was just hilarious. You gotta believe his thinking was, let me just keep saying it will come out next year, eventually, I’ll be right.
Here are a few other predictions not included on the previous site above. This was the result of me doing some hardcore research. Journalism, FTW, yo….smiley face.
June 2012: “If I were a betting man (and I am), I would say a spring 2014 launch makes more sense, since hard core Xbots could get a console without having to compete with moms buying gifts at holiday, and it is likely that they won’t manufacture more than a few million units for launch.” Bet 110 to win 100…loss.
June 2013: PlayStation 4 to cost $349 and Xbox One to cost $399. Close, but no cigar. PlayStation 4 ended up costing $399 and the Xbox One ended up costing $499 at launch.
March 2013: Michael Pachter picks Microsoft to win next gen console race, but…
November 2013: Michael Pachter predicts Sony will win the next gen console race. I suppose buttering both sides of your toast isn’t a bad idea. Also, he mentions how consoles will be irrelevant in 10 years and this will be the last generation of consoles. Hmm, where have we heard that one. Oh, yeah, that’s right…
Given the fact that people have been claiming consoles will be dead soon, this doesn’t surprise me. Once again, though, they’ll be wrong. And in another 10 years you’ll have people claiming consoles will die then and we’ll keep going around in the cycle. Consoles aren’t going anywhere, and with the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One setting records it basically proves that there is still a massive market for consoles.
Now, to be fair, here are some other notable predictions he got right:
Feb 2010: Natal will outsell Sony’s “Arc” (PS Move) 5 to 1.
Correct: based on how bundles of the two systems sold. Hey you know what, big time kudos here. He definitely nailed this one. This was at a time where the Wii was still a big thing and Sony tried to capture a little of that magic and some people thought the PlayStation Move would be a real system seller. As we all know now, it wasn’t.
Nov 2007: Guitar Hero III will generate half billion in fiscal year
Correct: It was a huge seller.
Mar 2008: Pachter predicts GTA4 will sell well
Correct, I assume. This one is so obvious I’m not even research it.
Jul 2009: Take 2 will “dominate” 2010.
Correct
These three, come on. How can you be wrong with? That’s like picking a team straight up when they are 35 point favorites. Of course they are going to win. I think everybody thought Guitar Hero and Grand Theft Auto would sell well. At its time Guitar Hero was the biggest game on the market, until it was milked to death. And, of course, Grand Theft Auto IV was going to sell well just like GTA V was going to sell well. When Rockstar Games releases Grand Theft Auto VI on the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, that will sell well as well.
So, just to recap: Michael Pachter is an analysis for a private company called Wedbush Securities and the gaming industry stops when he speaks. But, when he does speak and give off a prediction he’s usually wrong. I don’t know, I suppose you can say he’s the weatherman of the gaming industry. He’s just there talking. It’s just information you can sort of take it for what it is. It’s just one man’s opinion, it’s not really a solid gold expert opinion.
Perhaps there’s more to Michael Pachter’s role, though. Maybe his role is just to troll the public. I don’t know, either way, I think Pachter has a great job. Maybe not the greatest job in the world, that’s a bit much, but I have to think he has a pretty, pretty, pretty good situation. People ask for his opinion, he gives them an opinion, gaming sites publish it and it doesn’t matter if he’s right or wrong. He’s still getting a paycheck at the end of the day.
